Surveys over time

2016 · Chapman Survey of American Fears, Wave 3
42.6% agreed the government is concealing what it knows about alien encounters
Asked: US adults · Sample: not listed in source · Source ↗
2018 · Chapman Survey of American Fears, Wave 5
49.4% agreed
Asked: US adults · Sample: 1,190 · Source ↗

Where it came from

The modern story runs through Roswell, New Mexico, in July 1947, when, as the National Archives puts it, "pro-UFO researchers claim that an extraterrestrial spacecraft and its alien occupants were recovered" and the fact kept from the public. From 1947 to 1969 the Air Force's Project Blue Book logged 12,618 sightings; 701 stayed "Unidentified." (National Archives)

Interest jumped again in December 2017, when The New York Times reported a secret Pentagon program, the Advanced Aerospace Threat Identification Program, that studied UFO reports (NYT, Dec 16, 2017).

The case believers make

Believers point out that the Pentagon did run a secret UFO program, begun in 2007, and that it took a newspaper to reveal it. At a July 26, 2023 House Oversight hearing, former Navy F-18 pilot Ryan Graves testified that "parts of our government are aware more about UAP than they let on, but excessive classification practices keep crucial information hidden," and that since 2021 all UAP videos are classified secret or above. Former intelligence officer David Grusch testified that he was told of a decades-long crash-retrieval and reverse-engineering program but was denied access to it. (hearing record)

The case against

The Pentagon's All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) reviewed the historical record and in March 2024 reported "no evidence that any USG investigation, academic-sponsored research, or official review panel has confirmed that any sighting of a UAP represented extraterrestrial technology." AARO said claims of reverse-engineering programs were inaccurate, and AARO said witnesses had mistaken real classified programs for alien ones (AARO, Vol. 1). The Air Force's 1994–95 Roswell review concluded the debris was consistent with a balloon from a then-classified project (National Archives).

Key documents

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